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Mathematical Predictions

Probabilities computed by the G10 Model

G10 Model · g10-poisson-v1

League-calibrated attack/defense ratings + Poisson core + recent-form momentum adjustment. Original, auditable methodology.

Model updated on 04/09/2026, 19:40

La LigaPrimera Division05/09, 11:15
Athletic ClubAthletic Club
Predicted score1–1λ 1.2 · 2
Club Atlético de MadridClub Atlético de Madrid
Home

18%

Draw

22%

Away

60%

42

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

54

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating43
Defense Rating46
Attack Rating66
Defense Rating59
Over 2.5 61%Both teams to score 60%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
EredivisieEredivisie05/09, 11:30
NECNEC
Predicted score2–1λ 2.2 · 1.9
Feyenoord RotterdamFeyenoord Rotterdam
Home

45%

Draw

20%

Away

35%

30

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

60

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating58
Defense Rating60
Attack Rating58
Defense Rating61
Over 2.5 77%Both teams to score 75%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga05/09, 11:30
CF Estrela da AmadoraCF Estrela da Amadora
Predicted score1–0λ 1.7 · 0.9
FC FamalicãoFC Famalicão
Home

59%

Draw

23%

Away

18%

41

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

50

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating67
Defense Rating41
Attack Rating29
Defense Rating61
Over 2.5 50%Both teams to score 50%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
La LigaPrimera Division05/09, 13:30
Rayo Vallecano de MadridRayo Vallecano de Madrid
Predicted score1–2λ 1.7 · 2.1
Real Racing Club de SantanderReal Racing Club de Santander
Home

30%

Draw

21%

Away

49%

34

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

46

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating48
Defense Rating35
Attack Rating54
Defense Rating46
Over 2.5 74%Both teams to score 72%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
EredivisieEredivisie05/09, 13:45
FC UtrechtFC Utrecht
Predicted score2–3λ 2.1 · 3.8
Go Ahead EaglesGo Ahead Eagles
Home

13%

Draw

14%

Away

73%

57

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

46

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating41
Defense Rating32
Attack Rating62
Defense Rating47
Over 2.5 91%Both teams to score 84%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga05/09, 14:00
FC AlvercaFC Alverca
Predicted score1–1λ 1.2 · 1.8
Sporting Clube de BragaSporting Clube de Braga
Home

22%

Draw

23%

Away

55%

34

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

47

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating41
Defense Rating39
Attack Rating51
Defense Rating55
Over 2.5 57%Both teams to score 57%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga05/09, 14:00
CS MarítimoCS Marítimo
Predicted score1–2λ 1.5 · 2.3
Sport Lisboa e BenficaSport Lisboa e Benfica
Home

24%

Draw

20%

Away

56%

39

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

65

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating53
Defense Rating54
Attack Rating91
Defense Rating58
Over 2.5 72%Both teams to score 69%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
EredivisieEredivisie05/09, 15:00
AFC AjaxAFC Ajax
Predicted score2–2λ 2 · 2
PSVPSV
Home

39%

Draw

21%

Away

40%

26

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

70

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating58
Defense Rating75
Attack Rating78
Defense Rating67
Over 2.5 77%Both teams to score 75%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
EredivisieEredivisie05/09, 16:00
Willem II TilburgWillem II Tilburg
Predicted score1–2λ 1.4 · 2.8
SBV ExcelsiorSBV Excelsior
Home

14%

Draw

17%

Away

69%

48

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

51

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating41
Defense Rating38
Attack Rating54
Defense Rating67
Over 2.5 79%Both teams to score 71%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
La LigaPrimera Division05/09, 16:00
Villarreal CFVillarreal CF
Predicted score1–1λ 1.4 · 1.6
RC Deportivo La CoruñaRC Deportivo La Coruña
Home

31%

Draw

24%

Away

45%

31

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

52

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating48
Defense Rating46
Attack Rating54
Defense Rating59
Over 2.5 57%Both teams to score 59%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
CBSCampeonato Brasileiro Série A05/09, 16:00
RB BragantinoRB Bragantino
Predicted score1–1λ 1.3 · 1.1
EC BahiaEC Bahia
Home

38%

Draw

28%

Away

34%

37

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

56

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating46
Defense Rating63
Attack Rating56
Defense Rating55
Over 2.5 43%Both teams to score 48%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga05/09, 16:30
Sporting Clube de PortugalSporting Clube de Portugal
Predicted score2–1λ 3 · 1.3
CD NacionalCD Nacional
Home

73%

Draw

15%

Away

12%

57

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

61

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating89
Defense Rating54
Attack Rating53
Defense Rating47
Over 2.5 80%Both teams to score 69%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
CBSCampeonato Brasileiro Série A05/09, 18:30
São Paulo FCSão Paulo FC
Predicted score1–1λ 1.2 · 1.1
CA MineiroCA Mineiro
Home

35%

Draw

28%

Away

37%

36

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

53

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating46
Defense Rating56
Attack Rating51
Defense Rating56
Over 2.5 42%Both teams to score 48%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
CBSCampeonato Brasileiro Série A05/09, 21:00
Fluminense FCFluminense FC
Predicted score2–1λ 2.2 · 1.1
CR Vasco da GamaCR Vasco da Gama
Home

66%

Draw

19%

Away

15%

63

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

49

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating59
Defense Rating51
Attack Rating43
Defense Rating41
Over 2.5 63%Both teams to score 58%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
EredivisieEredivisie06/09, 07:15
FC GroningenFC Groningen
Predicted score1–2λ 1.9 · 2.4
FC Twente '65FC Twente '65
Home

32%

Draw

19%

Away

49%

33

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

55

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating54
Defense Rating43
Attack Rating54
Defense Rating67
Over 2.5 80%Both teams to score 77%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
EredivisieEredivisie06/09, 09:30
Telstar 1963Telstar 1963
Predicted score2–1λ 2.9 · 1.5
SC Cambuur-LeeuwardenSC Cambuur-Leeuwarden
Home

70%

Draw

16%

Away

14%

49

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

36

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating37
Defense Rating43
Attack Rating33
Defense Rating30
Over 2.5 81%Both teams to score 73%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
EredivisieEredivisie06/09, 09:30
SC HeerenveenSC Heerenveen
Predicted score1–2λ 1 · 2.3
AZAZ
Home

13%

Draw

19%

Away

68%

53

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

64

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating37
Defense Rating61
Attack Rating70
Defense Rating86
Over 2.5 63%Both teams to score 57%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
CBSCampeonato Brasileiro Série A06/09, 11:00
Coritiba FBCCoritiba FBC
Predicted score1–1λ 1.8 · 1
Mirassol FCMirassol FC
Home

58%

Draw

23%

Away

19%

56

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

46

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating50
Defense Rating50
Attack Rating41
Defense Rating42
Over 2.5 54%Both teams to score 54%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
La LigaPrimera Division06/09, 11:15
Valencia CFValencia CF
Predicted score0–2λ 0.7 · 2.5
FC BarcelonaFC Barcelona
Home

4%

Draw

15%

Away

81%

54

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

62

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating31
Defense Rating52
Attack Rating95
Defense Rating68
Over 2.5 63%Both teams to score 48%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga06/09, 11:30
CD Santa ClaraCD Santa Clara
Predicted score1–0λ 1.8 · 0.5
Rio Ave FCRio Ave FC
Home

71%

Draw

22%

Away

7%

53

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

48

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating47
Defense Rating72
Attack Rating29
Defense Rating43
Over 2.5 40%Both teams to score 34%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
EredivisieEredivisie06/09, 11:45
ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag
Predicted score1–2λ 1.4 · 2.4
Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard
Home

18%

Draw

19%

Away

63%

50

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

45

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating33
Defense Rating40
Attack Rating49
Defense Rating55
Over 2.5 73%Both teams to score 68%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
La LigaPrimera Division06/09, 13:30
Málaga CFMálaga CF
Predicted score1–1λ 1.1 · 2
Levante UDLevante UD
Home

20%

Draw

22%

Away

58%

41

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

43

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating31
Defense Rating38
Attack Rating54
Defense Rating46
Over 2.5 59%Both teams to score 57%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
La LigaPrimera Division06/09, 13:30
Deportivo AlavésDeportivo Alavés
Predicted score1–0λ 1.1 · 0.7
CA OsasunaCA Osasuna
Home

45%

Draw

32%

Away

23%

31

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

65

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating54
Defense Rating81
Attack Rating43
Defense Rating81
Over 2.5 27%Both teams to score 34%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga06/09, 14:00
Vitória SCVitória SC
Predicted score1–0λ 1.8 · 0.4
Casa Pia ACCasa Pia AC
Home

74%

Draw

20%

Away

6%

55

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

35

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating35
Defense Rating54
Attack Rating17
Defense Rating30
Over 2.5 39%Both teams to score 28%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
CBSCampeonato Brasileiro Série A06/09, 16:00
SC InternacionalSC Internacional
Predicted score1–1λ 1.4 · 1.3
Santos FCSantos FC
Home

39%

Draw

26%

Away

35%

37

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

48

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating39
Defense Rating53
Attack Rating54
Defense Rating44
Over 2.5 49%Both teams to score 54%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
La LigaPrimera Division06/09, 16:00
RCD Espanyol de BarcelonaRCD Espanyol de Barcelona
Predicted score1–1λ 1.9 · 1.6
Sevilla FCSevilla FC
Home

44%

Draw

22%

Away

34%

30

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

53

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating54
Defense Rating52
Attack Rating60
Defense Rating46
Over 2.5 68%Both teams to score 68%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
CBSCampeonato Brasileiro Série A06/09, 16:00
Cruzeiro ECCruzeiro EC
Predicted score1–1λ 1.2 · 1.6
CA ParanaenseCA Paranaense
Home

32%

Draw

25%

Away

43%

42

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

56

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating53
Defense Rating46
Attack Rating56
Defense Rating66
Over 2.5 52%Both teams to score 56%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
CBSCampeonato Brasileiro Série A06/09, 16:00
Clube do RemoClube do Remo
Predicted score0–2λ 0.9 · 2.5
CR FlamengoCR Flamengo
Home

7%

Draw

17%

Away

76%

70

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

60

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating46
Defense Rating39
Attack Rating76
Defense Rating78
Over 2.5 64%Both teams to score 53%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga06/09, 16:30
Gil Vicente FCGil Vicente FC
Predicted score1–0λ 1.8 · 0.5
Académico de Viseu FCAcadémico de Viseu FC
Home

72%

Draw

22%

Away

6%

47

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

56

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating43
Defense Rating99
Attack Rating41
Defense Rating39
Over 2.5 41%Both teams to score 35%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
CBSCampeonato Brasileiro Série A06/09, 18:30
Botafogo FRBotafogo FR
Predicted score1–2λ 1.1 · 2.2
SE PalmeirasSE Palmeiras
Home

18%

Draw

20%

Away

62%

60

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

61

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating58
Defense Rating40
Attack Rating68
Defense Rating78
Over 2.5 64%Both teams to score 60%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
CBSCampeonato Brasileiro Série A06/09, 19:30
SC Corinthians PaulistaSC Corinthians Paulista
Predicted score1–0λ 1.9 · 0.8
Chapecoense AFChapecoense AF
Home

64%

Draw

22%

Away

14%

60

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

45

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating39
Defense Rating66
Attack Rating40
Defense Rating32
Over 2.5 48%Both teams to score 45%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
La LigaPrimera Division07/09, 14:00
Getafe CFGetafe CF
Predicted score0–0λ 1 · 0.8
RC Celta de VigoRC Celta de Vigo
Home

38%

Draw

33%

Away

29%

28

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

42

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating31
Defense Rating52
Attack Rating31
Defense Rating52
Over 2.5 27%Both teams to score 35%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga07/09, 16:15
GD Estoril PraiaGD Estoril Praia
Predicted score0–1λ 0.6 · 1.8
FC AroucaFC Arouca
Home

8%

Draw

22%

Away

70%

52

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

51

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating29
Defense Rating43
Attack Rating59
Defense Rating72
Over 2.5 45%Both teams to score 40%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
La LigaPrimera Division07/09, 16:30
Elche CFElche CF
Predicted score1–1λ 1.7 · 1.8
Real Sociedad de FútbolReal Sociedad de Fútbol
Home

37%

Draw

22%

Away

41%

27

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

41

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating43
Defense Rating32
Attack Rating43
Defense Rating42
Over 2.5 68%Both teams to score 68%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
CBSCampeonato Brasileiro Série A07/09, 20:00
EC VitóriaEC Vitória
Predicted score1–1λ 1.1 · 1.2
Grêmio FBPAGrêmio FBPA
Home

32%

Draw

28%

Away

40%

40

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

44

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating36
Defense Rating45
Attack Rating43
Defense Rating49
Over 2.5 41%Both teams to score 47%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
EredivisieEredivisie08/09, 13:45
NECNEC
Predicted score2–1λ 2 · 1.7
SBV ExcelsiorSBV Excelsior
Home

44%

Draw

21%

Away

35%

29

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

60

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating58
Defense Rating60
Attack Rating54
Defense Rating67
Over 2.5 72%Both teams to score 71%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
EredivisieEredivisie09/09, 13:45
FC Twente '65FC Twente '65
Predicted score2–1λ 2.9 · 1.1
Telstar 1963Telstar 1963
Home

75%

Draw

14%

Away

11%

52

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

51

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating54
Defense Rating67
Attack Rating37
Defense Rating43
Over 2.5 76%Both teams to score 62%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga09/09, 16:45
Moreirense FCMoreirense FC
Predicted score1–2λ 1.2 · 3
Sport Lisboa e BenficaSport Lisboa e Benfica
Home

10%

Draw

14%

Away

76%

52

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

59

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating43
Defense Rating41
Attack Rating91
Defense Rating58
Over 2.5 78%Both teams to score 65%Model pick: Away win
View analysis
Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga10/09, 16:15
CF Estrela da AmadoraCF Estrela da Amadora
Predicted score1–1λ 1.9 · 1.7
Sporting Clube de BragaSporting Clube de Braga
Home

44%

Draw

22%

Away

34%

26

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

54

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating67
Defense Rating41
Attack Rating51
Defense Rating55
Over 2.5 70%Both teams to score 69%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
EredivisieEredivisie11/09, 15:00
AZAZ
Predicted score4–0λ 4.3 · 0.9
Willem II TilburgWillem II Tilburg
Home

93%

Draw

6%

Away

1%

63

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

59

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating70
Defense Rating86
Attack Rating41
Defense Rating38
Over 2.5 86%Both teams to score 58%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
BundesligaBundesliga11/09, 15:30
1. FC Union Berlin1. FC Union Berlin
Predicted score2–1λ 2.7 · 1.7
FC Schalke 04FC Schalke 04
Home

62%

Draw

18%

Away

20%

33

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

48

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating55
Defense Rating46
Attack Rating42
Defense Rating46
Over 2.5 81%Both teams to score 76%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
Ligue 1Ligue 111/09, 15:45
Stade Rennais FC 1901Stade Rennais FC 1901
Predicted score1–1λ 1.9 · 1.8
Olympique de MarseilleOlympique de Marseille
Home

41%

Draw

22%

Away

37%

24

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

55

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating62
Defense Rating45
Attack Rating56
Defense Rating56
Over 2.5 70%Both teams to score 70%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
Serie ASerie A11/09, 15:45
Venezia FCVenezia FC
Predicted score1–0λ 1.5 · 1
ACF FiorentinaACF Fiorentina
Home

50%

Draw

26%

Away

24%

31

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

35

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating33
Defense Rating41
Attack Rating33
Defense Rating31
Over 2.5 45%Both teams to score 48%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
La LigaPrimera Division11/09, 16:00
Sevilla FCSevilla FC
Predicted score1–0λ 1.9 · 0.9
Valencia CFValencia CF
Home

64%

Draw

22%

Away

14%

44

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

48

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating59
Defense Rating47
Attack Rating31
Defense Rating52
Over 2.5 54%Both teams to score 51%Model pick: Home win
View analysis
ChampionshipChampionship11/09, 16:00
West Ham United FCWest Ham United FC
Predicted score1–1λ 1.7 · 1.6
Wrexham AFCWrexham AFC
Home

39%

Draw

23%

Away

38%

29

Confidence Score

Confidence in the top pick

Match Strength Index

56

Overall quality of the fixture

Team ratings

Attack Rating62
Defense Rating44
Attack Rating51
Defense Rating64
Over 2.5 63%Both teams to score 65%Model pick: Home win
View analysis